The Largest IPO in History Lists Today. PPI Just Printed 6.5%. BTC Holds $62K. June 12. — India Guide
SpaceX lists as SPCX at $1.77T valuation — largest IPO ever at $75B. May PPI hit 6.5% YoY, hottest since 2022. BTC holds $62K. Binance referral code RATE20 gives 20% discount. Tailored for India traders with INR deposit methods.
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Today is the day. SpaceX begins trading on Nasdaq as SPCX — 555.6 million shares at $135, raising $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation. The largest IPO in the history of capital markets. Twice the size of Saudi Aramco. And it arrives on the same day that wholesale inflation just printed 6.5% year-over-year — the highest since November 2022 — with goods prices posting their largest monthly surge ever recorded. Bitcoin? It’s at $62,694. Holding. Not crashing. Not rallying. Just… holding. In a market where everything is either exploding or imploding, Bitcoin’s refusal to move might be the most interesting thing happening.
FOMC is in 5 days. The dot plot will either confirm the hold or signal a hike. Today’s question is simpler: does SpaceX drain crypto, or does the risk-on mood lift it?
SpaceX Goes Public: $75B, $1.77T, and the Trade of the Decade
The numbers are almost absurd. SpaceX priced at $135 per share — a fixed-price offering that bypassed the traditional range-and-discover process entirely. Total demand exceeded $250 billion, more than 3x the offering size. Retail orders alone topped $100 billion.
| SpaceX (SPCX) IPO — Day 1 | Value |
|---|---|
| IPO price | $135/share |
| Shares sold | 555.6M |
| Capital raised | $75B |
| Valuation | $1.77T |
| Overallotment option | $11.2B (83.33M shares) |
| Total demand | $250B+ (3.3x oversubscribed) |
| Retail allocation | ~30% |
| Float | ~4% |
| Musk voting control | 82%+ |
| Expected first trade | Late morning / early afternoon ET |
The first trade won’t happen at the opening bell. Price discovery for mega-IPOs typically begins with indicative quotes around 10:15 AM ET, with the actual opening cross expected late morning or early afternoon. Expect multiple trading halts under LULD rules.
Polymarket gives 84% odds that SPCX closes above $135 on day one, with 46% odds it rises more than 20% — which would put it above $162. Week 1 targets range from $140-$175. The bull case for the first 90 days is $200. The bear case is $120.
The structural factor that matters for every other asset class: the initial float is just 4%. With MSCI announcing early inclusion starting June 13 (T+1), passive fund buying begins almost immediately. Nasdaq-100 inclusion follows around July 6 under the new fast-track rule, triggering an estimated $22-27 billion in mandatory index fund purchases. That’s structural demand into a 4% float. The math is violent.
PPI Printed 6.5%: The Number Nobody Expected
If yesterday’s CPI was a split signal, today’s PPI was a gut punch. May producer prices rose 1.1% month-over-month — against expectations of 0.7% — putting the 12-month rate at 6.5%. That’s the highest since November 2022.
| May PPI Data | Expected | Actual | vs. April |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPI (MoM) | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| PPI (YoY) | ~5.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% |
| Final demand goods (MoM) | — | +2.8% | +0.8% |
| Energy (MoM) | — | +10.7% | +3.8% |
| Gasoline (wholesale, MoM) | — | +23.4% | — |
| Services (MoM) | — | +0.3% | +0.7% |
| Core PPI (MoM) | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Core PPI (YoY) | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% |
The headline is terrifying. The details are more nuanced — and the details are what the Fed will focus on.
Nearly 80% of the PPI acceleration came from goods, specifically a 2.8% surge in final demand goods — the largest monthly increase in a data series going back to 2009. Of that, 80% came from energy. Gasoline prices jumped 23.4% at the wholesale level. This is the Iran oil shock showing up in the pipeline.
But services moderated to 0.3% from 0.7% in April. Core PPI came in at 0.4% vs. 0.5% expected. The same pattern as CPI: hot headline, softer core. Energy is doing all the heavy lifting.
The “core-core” reading — excluding food, energy, and trade services — tells a scarier story: +0.8% MoM, the largest since March 2022, and +5.1% YoY. That suggests some energy costs are beginning to pass through to final prices. If this persists, the “supply shock, not demand” narrative starts to crack.
For FOMC: the PPI reinforces the hold. Warsh can’t cut into 6.5% PPI. But he also can’t hike based on an energy shock he can’t control. The dot plot — not the rate decision — is where the action is on June 17.
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Bitcoin at $62K: Why It’s Not Moving — and Why That’s Bullish
Bitcoin has been in a $60K-$63K range for six straight days. Through CPI. Through PPI. Through SpaceX pricing. Through the worst inflation data in three years. It hasn’t broken down. That’s information.
| BTC Range-Bound Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| Current price | ~$62,694 |
| 6-day range | $59,100 - $64,200 |
| 24h change | +1.03% |
| Fear & Greed | 14 (extreme fear) |
| RSI (daily) | ~29 |
| 200-week MA | $61,800 |
| Distance from ATH | -50.3% |
| Market cap | $1.26T |
The price action is telling you something. $7 billion in leverage got flushed last week. Sellers are exhausted. ETF outflows have slowed from $500M/day to under $100M. The 200-week MA at $61,800 — the line that has marked every cycle bottom — is holding as a magnet. Price keeps gravitating back to it.
The Fear & Greed Index is at 14. RSI is at 29. Both readings are in the zone that has preceded every major rally in the past two years. But as we keep noting — “preceded” doesn’t mean “triggered.” The catalyst has to come from macro or flows, not from technicals.
The FOMC dot plot on June 17 is that catalyst. If the median dot shows zero cuts in 2026 — which the market has already priced — Bitcoin likely holds this range. If the median shifts toward a hike, $59K breaks. If Warsh surprises with language about “flexibility” or “data-dependent” pausing, the relief rally could reach $67K within days.
SpaceX and Crypto: The Capital Question Gets Answered Today
The “SpaceX is draining crypto” narrative has dominated for two weeks. Today we find out if it’s true.
| Capital Flow Scenario | SPCX Day 1 | Crypto Impact |
|---|---|---|
| SPCX rips above $162 (+20%) | Risk-on frenzy, massive retail FOMO | Mixed — SpaceX drains more capital BUT risk appetite lifts all boats |
| SPCX trades $135-$150 | Orderly, expected | Neutral — capital absorbed, no panic |
| SPCX opens flat or below $135 | Disappointment | Bullish crypto — rotation thesis breaks, capital returns |
The bull case for crypto is counterintuitive: if SpaceX is a blowout success, it validates risk appetite. Money market fund holders see the first-day pop and start moving capital back into risk assets — including crypto. The rising tide theory.
The bear case is straightforward: $75 billion just got absorbed. Another $22-27 billion follows from index fund buying. That’s $100 billion+ competing with Bitcoin ETFs for the marginal institutional dollar.
The reality is probably somewhere in between. CoinDesk’s analysis found no evidence of abnormal crypto-to-fiat conversion during the roadshow. Stablecoin supplies haven’t declined. On-chain data shows normal patterns. The rotation may be real at the institutional level but not at retail.
The FOMC Countdown: 5 Days
| Remaining Catalysts | Date |
|---|---|
| SpaceX first trade | Today (June 12) |
| MSCI early inclusion begins | June 13 |
| Warsh’s first FOMC | June 16-17 |
| Nasdaq-100 inclusion | ~July 6 |
The macro data is in. CPI: 4.2% headline, 0.2% core. PPI: 6.5% headline, 0.4% core. Both tell the same story — energy-driven inflation with moderating underlying pressures. The question is whether the dot plot acknowledges this nuance or treats the headline as the signal.
CME FedWatch prices 96.2% odds of a hold at 3.50-3.75%. The risk isn’t the decision — it’s the guidance. A hawkish dot plot showing zero 2026 cuts (or a hike) confirms higher-for-longer. A neutral dot plot maintaining the status quo gives markets permission to breathe.
Bitcoin at $62K with RSI at 29 and Fear at 14 going into FOMC is a coiled spring. The direction depends on Warsh. Everything else — SpaceX, CPI, PPI — is noise until June 17.
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The Bottom Line
The largest IPO in history goes live today. SpaceX, valued at $1.77 trillion, begins trading as SPCX with $250 billion in demand chasing a $75 billion offering. By tonight we’ll know if the “capital rotation” thesis that haunted crypto for two weeks was real or imagined.
PPI printed 6.5% — the hottest since November 2022 — but the pattern matches CPI: energy-driven headline with moderating core. The Iran oil shock is the story, not demand-side overheating. The Fed knows the difference, even if the headlines don’t.
Bitcoin holds $62K. It hasn’t broken despite the worst inflation readings in three years, the largest IPO ever, and the longest ETF outflow streak in history. The selling is spent. The fear is maxed. The technicals are oversold. What’s missing is the catalyst — and FOMC on June 17 is it.
Five days. One dot plot. The coiled spring resolves.
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When does SpaceX (SPCX) start trading on June 12, 2026?
SpaceX (SPCX) begins trading on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026, with the first trade expected late morning or early afternoon ET rather than at the 9:30 AM market open. The IPO priced at $135 per share on June 11, raising $75 billion — the largest IPO in capital markets history — at a $1.77 trillion valuation. SpaceX sold 555.6 million Class A shares, with an overallotment option of 83.33 million additional shares worth $11.2 billion. Investor demand exceeded $250 billion, more than 3x oversubscribed. The initial float is approximately 4%, which combined with MSCI’s early inclusion starting June 13 and Nasdaq-100 inclusion around July 6, creates significant structural demand from passive index funds estimated at $22-27 billion. Elon Musk retains over 82% voting control post-IPO. Polymarket assigns an 84% probability that SPCX closes above its $135 offer price on day one.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
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